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Flop, and even if you aren't, your opponents have a lot of outs. this hand should be treated as a drawing hand. one problem with this flop is the pair of 6's. even if you hit your 9, you would lose to an overpair, which is a likely hand in this situation; therefore, you should fold with only two outs. in the actual hand, the player folded. the big blind showed jj and the preflop raiser tt. 9 - paradise poker. you hold q j in middle position. an early player calls and you make a weak call. the small blind calls and the big blind raises. everybody calls except the small blind. three players see the flop of j 5 the big blind bets and the early player folds. you raise and the big blind reraise. there is 0 in the pot. what do you do? answer: call. note how this hand is different than the hand before. in the hand before, there was a small pair on the flop, so the player probably only had two outs. in this hand, you again are most likely beat; however, you have five outs to improve your hand compared to the previous example of only two outs. you should probably fold the turn if you don't improve, unless your opponent is an aggressive player who raises often from the big blind. your opponent might have ak, but he is indicating a premium pair by reraising the flop and it will cost you two big bets to find out. 10 - paradise poker. you hold 9 6 in the big blind. the cutoff raises and you call. the flop is 9 5 you check and the cutoff bets. there is in the pot. what do you do? answer: raise. the problem with calling here is deciding what you are going to do on the turn. if you check the turn, your opponent might take a free card. the best strategy is to go ahead and raise and then bet out the turn. in these types of situations you should either bet out the flop or check-raise. 11 - poker shareware stars. you hold q q on the button. a wild early player raises and a middle player raises all-in to . you cap the betting and the small blind and early player both call. three players and an all-in player see the flop of 8 7 the early player bets. there is 0 in the pot. what do you do? answer: call. the wild early player could have anything. your main concern with such a large pot is maximizing your chance to win it. the small blind called a capped pot. so it will be difficult to drive him out of the pot on the flop; however, if you wail to raise the turn, you have a better chance of driving out this player by forcing him to call two big bets. this will give you a better chance of winning the pot if an ace or king falls on the river. in the actual hand, the player called and the early player checked the turn card of 7 ruining the player's strategy to make it two big bets on the turn. the player bet, the small blind called, and the early player folded. the river card was the 3 and the small blind called with 4 even at - you find players who love small pairs! 12 - paradise poker. you hold a q in the big blind. an early and middle player call and you just check. three players see the flop of q 8 there is in the pot. what do you do? answer: bet or check-raise. this is one of those hands where i believe either strategy is very close in regards to profit expectation. if you bet. they will most likely think that you hold a small pair allowing you to surprise your opponents if they hold some kind of hand, while if you check-raise, they will assume you have a queen. on the other hand, they may fold if you bet and you will only win a small pot. checkraising is not too risky since the pot is small and the only dangerous free card would.
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Evaluating the performance of an agent or group of agents can be, by itself, a very challenging problem. the stochastic nature of the environment plus the stochastic nature of agents' decisions can result in estimates with intractably large variances. this paper examines the problem of finding low variance estimates of agent performance. in particular, we assume that some agent-environment dynamics are known, such as the random outcome of drawing a card or rolling a die. other dynamics are unknown, such as the reasoning of a human or other black-box agent. using the known dynamics, we describe the complete set of all unbiased estimators, that is, for any possible unknown dynamics the estimate's expectation is always the agent's expected utility. then, given a belief about the unknown dynamics, we identify the unbiased estimator with minimum variance. if the belief is correct our estimate is optimal, and if the belief is wrong it is at least unbiased. finally, we apply our unbiased estimator to the game of poker, demonstrating dramatically reduced variance and faster evaluation and poker play.
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